Sunday, 25 April 2010

How can Labour not win?

I could be a little late on this, but there was a big old fuss the other week general electionland after the first Leaders Debate where the LibDems got a bounce, became the most popular party and still ended up the third biggest party in parliament.

Folk were asking, or more like demonstrating how Labour could come third in the popular vote but still be the biggest party. The BBC's Election Seat Calculation proved its worth, but its missing something.

In the Euro elections the other years, UKIP came out of nowhere and trounced Labour, but they're nowhere to be seen in this General Election. Maybe they'll get some seats, just one or two, maybe they get a few more. Maybe the media has got it wrong, this isn't a three horse race, and we're got the rainbow of political parties and coalitions is going to be the only way forward from now on.

Anyhoo, here's the Election Seat Calculator showing how Labour could come fourth in the popular vote and still be the biggest party.

The 'Other' segement could easily contain a larger party like UKIP or the Greens, or one of those regional parties. If that's not clear evidence of the need for electoral reform, I dunno what is. Although in my own naive way, I reckon its just a case of balancing constituency sizes a wee bit, and just the Electoral Commission needing to get their act together.

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