Tuesday 27 March 2012

Fun with the Income tax threshold

Someone changed the office radio from Smooth FM to LBC today, and within second the office was seething with opinions about who's fault everything was:- parents, the police, ethnic concentrations in deprived areas, politicians.

Someone made a remark about how the Tories hate poor people, I'd just read Mark Pack's blogpost about how many Labour MPs voted against lowering the 50% tax rate, which had me thinking about how the Tories have massively helped poor people with last week's budget raising the income tax allowance, taking 2 million people out of income tax.

And that got me thinking about the income tax threshold generally, I believe in raising it to above the minimum wage is a great idea, taking all of the low paid out of tax, out of the employer's HR department even having to bother with the paperwork of taxing them, letting the low paid keep more of their hard earned money.

This blog says:-
We think raising the Income Tax allowance is the purest form of helping the poor.

So I took a look on the office of national statistics website for historical income tax thresholds, and then adjusted them for inflation and figured out which color of government were in power
Should it be adjusted for inflation, or adjusted by average earnings? Or some kind of mysterious cost of living index that takes into account the cost of living, other taxes, houses and so on? I dunno, I've adjusted for inflation cos it was easy to do with online tools.

The general idea is that if the government keeps the threshold level the same from one year to the next, because of inflation, it essentially means the threshold is lowered. Raising by the rate of inflation gives the patches of horizontal lines in my graph. The declining dots are when the government has kept the threshold at the previous years level and inflation has taken a bite.

This is my raw data:-

Year Threshold Inflation adjusted Government
1953 £110  £2,491.00  Con 
1954 £110  £2,416.00  Con 
1955 £110  £2,373.00  Con 
1956 £120  £2,478.00  Con 
1957 £120  £2,362.00  Con 
1958 £140  £2,658.00  Con 
1959 £140  £2,581.00  Con 
1960 £140  £2,566.00  Con 
1961 £140  £2,541.00  Con 
1962 £140  £2,457.00  Con 
1963 £140  £2,356.00  Con 
1964 £140  £2,310.00  Lab 
1965 £200  £3,194.00  Lab 
1966 £220  £3,048.00  Lab 
1967 £220  £2,934.00  Lab 
1968 £220  £2,862.00  Lab 
1969 £255  £3,485.00  Lab 
1970 £325  £4,215.00  Con 
1971 £325  £3,961.00  Con 
1972 £460  £5,124.00  Con 
1973 £595  £6,188.00  Con 
1974 £625  £5,950.00  Lab 
1975 £675  £5,541.00  Lab 
1976 £735  £4,858.00  Lab 
1977 £945  £5,358.00  Lab 
1978 £985  £4,826.00  Lab 
1979 £1,165  £5,265.00  Con 
1980 £1,375  £5,486.00  Con 
1981 £1,375  £4,647.00  Con 
1982 £1,565  £4,726.00  Con 
1983 £1,785  £4,962.00  Con 
1984 £2,005  £5,333.00  Con 
1985 £2,205  £5,578.00  Con 
1986 £2,335  £5,557.00  Con 
1987 £2,425  £5,577.00  Con 
1988 £2,605  £5,757.00  Con 
1989 £2,785  £5,876.00  Con 
1990 £3,005  £5,889.00  Con 
1991 £3,295  £5,898.00  Con 
1992 £3,445  £5,822.00  Con 
1993 £3,445  £5,615.00  Con 
1994 £3,445  £5,512.00  Con 
1995 £3,525  £5,499.00  Con 
1996 £3,765  £5,685.00  Con 
1997 £4,045  £5,946.00  Lab 
1998 £4,195  £5,998.00  Lab 
1999 £4,335  £5,982.00  Lab 
2000 £4,385  £5,963.00  Lab 
2001 £4,535  £5,986.00  Lab 
2002 £4,615  £5,999.00  Lab 
2003 £4,615  £5,907.00  Lab 
2004 £4,745  £5,883.00  Lab 
2005 £4,895  £5,874.00  Lab 
2006 £5,035  £5,890.00  Lab 
2007 £5,225  £5,904.00  Lab 
2008 £6,035  £6,517.00  Lab 
2009 £6,475  £6,734.00  Lab 
2010 £6,475  £6,798.00  ConLib 
2011 £7,475  £7,848.00  ConLib 
2012 £8,105  £8,105.00  ConLib 
2013 £9,205  £8,560.00  ConLib 

From looking at the graph and the numbers, it seems like the main step changes in the threshold level (from £2,400 to £5,900 and then to £8,000 in today's money) have occurred during Conservative governments. In fact, going by the past fifty years, where Conservatives and Labout have each had approximately 25 years in power, we can get these average increases in the threshold.
 

 Conservative and Libdems  Labour
Average  £207.23  £34.00
Median  £149.50 -£12.50
Sum  £5,388.00  £816.00

As a disclaimer, I'm not a Conservative voter myself, I just really like the idea of raising the income tax threshold to stop the government taking people's hard earned cash, and that seems to happen most during Conservative administrations.

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